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Donald Trump's Wise Coronavirus U-Turn Was the Right Call

Among the most inexcusable and damaging US policy decisions taken in response to the coronavirus epidemic were those at its onset.

They warned that without a social distancing policy the coronavirus epidemic could very well cost 2 million American lives, while with such a policy the losses could be limited to between 100,000 to 200,000 lives.

At the same time, recognizing that keeping people at home to contain the epidemic’s spread could precipitate the deepest of economic recessions, Mr. Trump toyed with the idea of abandoning the social distancing policy in place by as soon as April 12.

As the economic and social costs of the coronavirus epidemic became apparent--with US unemployment increased by more than 3 million workers in a single week--Congress sprang to action with unprecedented speed and boldness.

Similarly in the epidemic's initial phase, the Trump administration chose to ignore the devastating economic effect that the coronavirus crisis was having on China, Italy, and Spain.

Image of article 'Understanding the Economic Shock of Coronavirus'

Understanding the Economic Shock of Coronavirus

Pressing questions include the path of the shock and recovery, whether economies will be able to return to their pre-shock output levels and growth rates, and whether there will be any structural legacy from the coronavirus crisis.

Countries will have considerably different experiences for two reasons: the structural resilience of economies to absorb such shocks — call it destiny — and the capacity of medical researchers and policy makers to respond in new ways to an unprecedented challenge — call it innovation.

Let’s look in more detail at the two paths for Covid-19 to deliver structural damage in a U-shaped scenario: The financial and real economy risks are interrelated in two ways: First, a prolonged Covid-19 crisis could drive up the number of real economy bankruptcies, which makes it even harder for the financial system to manage.

Keeping the geometries above in mind, this leads to two questions about the Covid-19 shock: Classically, financial crises cripple an economy’s supply side.

Pressing questions include the path of the shock and recovery, whether economies will be able to return to their pre-shock output levels and growth rates, and whether there will be any structural legacy from the coronavirus crisis.

Understanding the Economic Shock of Coronavirus

Pressing questions include the path of the shock and recovery, whether economies will be able to return to their pre-shock output levels and growth rates, and whether there will be any structural legacy from the coronavirus crisis.

Countries will have considerably different experiences for two reasons: the structural resilience of economies to absorb such shocks — call it destiny — and the capacity of medical researchers and policy makers to respond in new ways to an unprecedented challenge — call it innovation.

Let’s look in more detail at the two paths for Covid-19 to deliver structural damage in a U-shaped scenario: The financial and real economy risks are interrelated in two ways: First, a prolonged Covid-19 crisis could drive up the number of real economy bankruptcies, which makes it even harder for the financial system to manage.

Keeping the geometries above in mind, this leads to two questions about the Covid-19 shock: Classically, financial crises cripple an economy’s supply side.

Pressing questions include the path of the shock and recovery, whether economies will be able to return to their pre-shock output levels and growth rates, and whether there will be any structural legacy from the coronavirus crisis.

The Use of Knowledge in Entrepreneurship | Hunter Hastings

We wouldn’t need entrepreneurs if we possessed all relevant economic information, if we knew every detail of customers’ preferences, and if we had complete knowledge of all the means by which customers could realize their preferences.

The peculiar role of the entrepreneur is determined by the fact that this knowledge of customers’ ends and their available means never exists in concentrated or integrated form, but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all separate individuals possess.

The economic problem that entrepreneurs address is the utilization of knowledge that is not given to anyone in its totality to secure the best use of available resources for ends whose importance only other individuals know.

The economic problem that the entrepreneur deals with is rapid adaptation to changes in the particular circumstances of time and place.

This adjustment may rapidly spread throughout the whole economic system and effect major changes in supply and demand, but the individual entrepreneur does not concern himself or herself with the system, just with the actionability of local and specific knowledge that they regard as essential even if it is, in theory, imperfect.

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What Faith Has To Tell Us About The Coronavirus

With almost 50% of our youth now expressing misguided enthusiasm for socialism, it is critical that business leaders behave thoughtfully and humanely in this crisis.

But overall operation of the airport is local, and rather than jumping on the president and playing blame games at a difficult time, governors such as Pritzker should step up to do their part.

At a time when political leaders should be inspiring confidence, Pritzker is attacking President Donald Trump, accusing the federal government of being “completely unprepared.”

We have a Constitution that assigns limited, defined powers to the federal government and leaves the rest to the states and individuals.

The coronavirus crisis presents challenges to us as a nation and as individuals.

Ethereum Volume Influenced by Twitter Activity, New Data Reveals

When looking at the future volume predictability, we find a similar trend to the one observed in previous years when the number of tweets increases by 1% today, Ether volume increases by 1.198% the next day.

Number of daily tweets from January 2017-December 2017 (inclusive) Volume trend holds through 2018 but turns negative in 2019 In 2018, the relationship between tweets mentioning Ethereum and transaction volume was positive but in a smaller magnitude than the timeframe observed in 2017 when the number of tweets increased by 1%, Ether volume would increase by 0.321%.

When the number of tweets increased by 1%, Ether’s trading volume would increase by 1.584% the next day.

Number of daily tweets from January 2017- March 2020 Tweets and their impact on Ether volume in 2017 When analyzing the relationship between Ether’s daily volume and the daily number of tweets mentioning Ethereum, a significant relationship is found throughout 2017.

The top 3 currencies and their number of tweets Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP analysis between the number of tweets mentioning each currency and their returns and trading volume showed consistent results throughout the years (between 2017-2019) concerning volume on the same day or future volume.

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Ethereum Co-Founder Pronounces 20th Century World Order Dead

No need for a central authority Hoskinson believes that the establishment for the past 10 years has paid no attention to epidemiologists’ warnings about “a global pandemic that could kill two hundred million people and collapse the global economy.

No more empires Hoskinson believes that the very fabric of the world order is unraveling before our eyes: “What we are looking at right now is the unraveling of the economic order of the 20th century... Winners and losers that had certain assumptions about how power should work, how money should work, how credit should work, how finance should work, how information needs to flow.

Hoskinson said that the recent market downturn was caused by the incongruence of the hierarchical order created by powerful institutions like governments, corporations, international organizations, where few powerful entities decide the fates of billions.

By “the economic order of 20th century”, Hoskinson means a centralized hierarchical economy that was built through “a series of treaties” made by a few great powers, this economy was built for the times “when information was not instantaneous”, and when most people were willing to accept “big brother’s” dictum.

People want to live in a world where they control their digital assets Hoskinson believes that people are fed up living in a society where old-world institutions control their financial accounts, data and identity.

published economy (general) technology

Has Wealth Inequality Really Increased

And from the paper’s conclusion: The inequality estimates in this paper are still overstated, because we exclude programs like disability insurance and Medicare, which constitute a larger share of the wealth of the bottom of the distribution than the top.

The following chart shows some common estimates of wealth inequality without and with the Social Security adjustments: Source: “Social Security and Trends in Inequality” by Catherine, Miller and Sarin.

Wealth inequality has not increased in the last three decades when Social Security is accounted for.

This paper revisits this conclusion by incorporating Social Security retirement benefits into measures of wealth inequality.

From that paper (bold by me): Recent influential work finds large increases in inequality in the U.S., based on measures of wealth concentration that notably exclude the value of social insurance programs.

The Coronavirus Is NOT the Black Plague (But It Can Teach Us Lessons

Landlords struggled to come to terms with the changes in the land market as a result of the loss in population.

In the context of the Black Death, elites attempted to entrench their power, but population change in the long term forced some rebalancing to the benefit of labourers, both in terms of wages and mobility and in opening up the market for land (the major source of wealth at the time) to new investors.

While the plague that caused the Black Death was very different to the coronavirus that is spreading today, there are some important lessons here for future economic growth.

The dramatic population change wrought by the Black Death also led to an explosion in social mobility.

While the plague that caused the Black Death was very different to the coronavirus that is spreading today, there are some important lessons here for future economic growth.

Image of article 'Under Trump, income growth slows across U.S., including in battleground states'

Under Trump, income growth slows across U.S., including in battleground states

New analysis of government data shows that, since Donald Trump took office, inflation-adjusted income growth has slowed significantly across the U.S. All but two states saw a decline in growth of real median household income under Trump—including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida, four states widely regarded as the key electoral battlegrounds that will likely determine the 2020 presidential election.

In fact, the analysis found that: Among the 10 states where the 2016 margin of victory for either Trump or Hillary Clinton was less than four percentage points, nine have experienced a drop in the growth of household income.

The decline in real median household income occurred in mostly red states: Alaska, West Virginia, South Dakota, and Wyoming.

Trump has claimed that real median household income growth during his presidency vastly exceeds growth under the Obama presidency, an assertion that relied on research from Heritage Foundation fellow Stephen Moore, a former Trump campaign advisor.

Real median hourly wages grew just 1 percent during 2019, and in 24 states, the median hourly wage grew 1 percent or less, according to the EPI and Capital & Main analysis of U.S. Census data.

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Image of article 'No global digital tax by end-2020 would mean digital tax chaos: France'

No global digital tax by end-2020 would mean digital tax chaos: France

“There is a consensus to build a solution by the end of 2020,” Le Maire said, noting the alternative — no agreement — would create a proliferation of different tax systems making life more difficult for companies.

France has already adopted its own digital tax, but suspended it until the end of the year to give the G20 time to work out a global deal to which all countries would subscribe.

REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes/File Photo Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of a meeting of world financial leaders, Bruno Le Maire said the gathering had been very useful in establishing consensus on such global tax rules.

RIYADH (Reuters) - Failure to reach a global deal on where and how much to tax digital giants like Google(GOOGL.O), Amazon(AMZN.O) or Facebook(FB.O) would result in many digital tax regimes emerging all over the world, France’s Finance Minister said on Sunday.

“Lets be clear — either we have at the end of 2020 an international solution... clearly in the interest of all countries and digital companies, or there is no solution and ... then it will be up the national taxes to enter into force,” Le Maire said.

published economy (general) technology
Image of article 'Let's Come Together to Tax Tech Giants, Say G20 Officials Eying $100 Billion Boost'

Let's Come Together to Tax Tech Giants, Say G20 Officials Eying $100 Billion Boost

"You cannot have in a global economy different national tax systems that conflict with each other," Mnuchin said.

Mnuchin said OECD countries were close to an agreement on the minimum tax level, which he said would also go a long way to resolving the issue of where tax is payed.

Global rules are being developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to make digital companies pay tax where they do business, rather than where they register subsidiaries.

Riyadh: Leading world economies must show unity in dealing with aggressive "tax optimisation" by global digital giants like Google, Amazon and Facebook, G20 officials said on Saturday.

Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said on Feb. 14 he would be ready to pay more tax in Europe and would welcome a global OECD solution that would make the levies uniform.

published economy (general) technology

The U.S. Economy Is Rigged

Over time, these government-business interactions have created a virtual merger of government and business power, something Mussolini described as the essence of fascism when he wrote, in the 1932 Enciclopedia Italiana: “Fascism should more properly be called corporatism, because it is the merger of state and corporate power.”

From this country’s beginnings, it has resisted the concentrations of power that typify the present system, whether in commerce or government.

For me, the last straw was Washington’s behavior during the 2008–09 financial crisis, in which the government ignored ways of proceeding equitably in favor of ad hoc measures that gave grants to favored firms, forced others into bankruptcy, and even took over the management of one.

They allowed private ownership and acquired control by offering huge benefits to firms that cooperated with their agenda—government contracts, protections from foreign and domestic competition, freedom from certain regulations (even from the law), and help in calming labor disputes—effectively all the advantages of monopolies.

While the public cannot identify exactly how the system is rigged, it is nonetheless correct: elites in business and government collude regularly to run the American economy to their own advantages and have increasingly done so for decades.

Piper Sandler Remains Bullish On Slack On Broader Enterprise Adoption

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Referring to Slack’s prospects as a strategic MA target, the analyst named IBM, Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL), ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE: NOW), Atlassian Corporation PLC (NASDAQ: TEAM) and salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE: CRM) as the potential suitors.

IBM’s wall-to-wall adoption of Slack may not lift the current Street estimate of 40.6% year-over-year billings growth for the fourth quarter, given the contract terms and tough compares, the analyst mentioned.

The Analyst Piper Sandler’s Brent Bracelin maintained an Overweight rating on Slack with a price target of $30.

Although this may not lend significant upside to the current billings growth estimate for the January quarter, additional indications of wall-to-wall adoption by large enterprises could elevate Slack’s value as a strategic MA (mergers and acquisitions) target, according to Piper Sandler.

Trump's Trade Tussle With China Is Indicative of a Future Free Market Failure

The result can well be that the world gradually enters a new phase, one where free market and competitiveness are thrown out of the window to make way for a primitive barter economy mindset anchored in protectionism and nationalism, which would then open the door for a more autarchic mindset.

In the 2016 presidential election, Trump’s economic vocabulary did not center around the free market but focused on a command economy, with the president ordering business to bring back jobs to America and if not suffer the consequences.

It will find support from domestic social losers and, to a certain degree, from big economies like China’s economy, which is able to enter into barter trade with the United States.

Furthermore, the United States, as a high priest of free markets, is now adopting a command economy reminiscent of the Soviet-style, which most of us thought was outmaneuvered more than thirty years ago.

The United States, as a high priest of free markets, is now adopting a command economy reminiscent of the Soviet-style, which most of us thought was outmaneuvered more than thirty years ago.

Image of article 'The significance of the sector on the salary of engineers in Sweden'

The significance of the sector on the salary of engineers in Sweden

So far I have analysed the effect of experience, education, gender, year and region on the salary of engineers in Sweden.

The table: Average basic salary, monthly salary and women´s salary as a percentage of men´s salary by region, sector, occupational group (SSYK 2012) and sex.

There are interactions between the different factors that are significant, i.e. have a p-value less than 0,05 but does not qualify because it´s inclusion in the model does not imply that it lowers the AIC value.

The model I chose from based on the AIC results is: log(salary) ~ year_n * sector + NUTS2_sh * sector + sex From this model, the F-value from the Anova table for the sector is 146 (Pr(>F) < 2.2e-16), sufficient for rejecting the null hypothesis that the sector has no effect on the salary holding year as constant.

The relationship between gender, region, sector and year.

published economy (general) programming
Image of article 'Govt stance on wealth creators will boost biz confidence, entrepreneurship: Mittal'

Govt stance on wealth creators will boost biz confidence, entrepreneurship: Mittal

Mittal further said the Budget underlined Government''s intent towards building a strong foundation for achieving the goal of making India a five trillion dollar economy.

This will be a massive boost to business confidence and entrepreneurship and a sign that we are serious about building a new India, where corporate India and new age entrepreneurs will be stakeholders in growth," Mittal said.

He noted that digital technologies are set to become the primary platform for economic activity and growth.

"The Finance Minister has rightfully made the emerging global technology trends along with inclusive growth as the backdrop for the Budget," he said.

Focus on `soft infrastructure'' elements such as Education and skilling of youth, healthcare and sanitation, and welfare of women, will ensure that Indians, specifically youth, gets access to the fruits of economic growth.

published economy (general) entrepreneur
Image of article '2 radically different ways to view risk determine how we deal with threat'

2 radically different ways to view risk determine how we deal with threat

That is, businesses, as you’d expect, tend to focus on their short-term economic situation, while civil society and other experts in the Global Risk Report focus on longer-term social and environmental consequences.

In sharp contrast to the World Economic Forum’s risk report, the CEO survey found that the top three risks to business this year are overregulation, trade conflicts, and uncertain economic growth.

Two perspectives on the biggest risks The World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report consolidates the perceptions of about 800 experts in business, government, and civil society to rank “the world’s most pressing challenges” for the coming year by likelihood and impact.

As it happens, the policymakers and business leaders who largely determine which risks become global priorities spent a week in January mingling in the mountainous resort of Davos for an annual meeting of the world’s elite.

In contrast, the Global Risk Report tends to reflect a greater evolution in the types of risks the world faces, with concerns about the environment and existential threats growing increasingly prominent over the past five years, while economic and geopolitical risks have faded after dominating in the late 2000s.

published economy (general) technology
Image of article 'Economic Survey 2020: India ranks third in entrepreneurship'

Economic Survey 2020: India ranks third in entrepreneurship

The Survey points out that relative to entrepreneurial capabilities in manufacturing, Services and Infrastructure, entrepreneurial capabilities in the Agriculture sector seem to be distributed evenly across most districts in India.

This impact of entrepreneurial activity on GDDP is maximal for the manufacturing and services sectors.

The Survey observed that the birth of new firms is very heterogeneous across Indian districts and sectors.

The Survey noted that reflecting India’s new economic structure, i.e. comparative advantage in the Services sector, new firm creation in services is significantly higher than that in manufacturing, infrastructure or agriculture.

The Survey notes that the entrepreneurial activity in the Manufacturing sector is highest in the regions of Gujarat, Meghalaya, Puducherry, Punjab and Rajasthan.

published economy (general) entrepreneur
Image of article 'Capitalism: more harm than good'

Capitalism: more harm than good

While government remains tied with media as the least trusted institution, it is the group most believe is best suited to address the issues of healthcare (53%); income inequality (51%); immigration (48%); and harmful products (42%).

Business is ranked highest in competence, holding a massive 54-point edge over government as an institution that is good at what it does (64% vs. 10%).

Business (58%) is the most trusted institution, taking the lead role in global governance, according to Edelman: "Business has leapt into the void left by populist and partisan government," he explains.

A new survey reveals that despite a strong global economy and near full employment, a majority of respondents in every developed market do not believe they will be better off in five years' time, and 56% believe that capitalism in its current form is now doing more harm than good in the world.

No institution has a vision for the future that a majority of respondents believe in: government (35%); media (35%); business (41%); NGOs (45%).

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Image of article 'US Polls not a big issue, policy and taxes are: Rajesh Gopinathan, CEO, Tata Consultancy Services'

US Polls not a big issue, policy and taxes are: Rajesh Gopinathan, CEO, Tata Consultancy Services

So if you take the order pipeline and look at what is the order pipeline from the new engagements versus renewals, it will be in the range of 50% closer to 60%, and that depends on where the, you know, how the dynamic of the market is.

See new customers per se typically account for somewhere in the range of about 5% or so of revenue in a given year, it is in that order of magnitude, new customers.

Of the orders worth $18 billion you have won in the last nine months, how much is from repeat customers and how much from new ones?

The overall industry (spending) itself is moderating but inside that moderating set, if you take it from the beginning of last year, we have actually increased market share every quarter.

In our order pipeline, in the order pipeline from new customers it will be in the range of about I would think in the range of about 30% if I take North America and in markets like Europe where there is much faster growth the number will be more, that is from a pipeline perspective.

published economy (general) technology
Image of article 'Is America Overestimating The China Challenge'

Is America Overestimating The China Challenge

And Reuters recently reported, “Chinese productivity growth has gone into reverse for the first time since the Cultural Revolution tore the country apart in the 1970s … highlighting the failure of recent reforms to set China on a sustainable development path.”

Total factor productivity growth in China in recent years has been a third of what it was before the 2008 global financial crisis.”

Chinese state capitalism with American characteristics.

Now as it happens, 21st century China has been described as a combo of 1980s Japan and Soviet Russia in that it poses a comprehensive economic, military, and ideological challenge to American global dominance.

As AEI scholar Leon Aron wrote back in 2011, “In the years leading up to 1991, virtually no Western expert, scholar, official, or politician foresaw the impending collapse of the Soviet Union, and with it one-party dictatorship, the state-owned economy, and the Kremlin’s control over its domestic and Eastern European empires.”

Image of article 'Middle East technology: The good, the bad and the ugly told in these key stats'

Middle East technology: The good, the bad and the ugly told in these key stats

Source: Hootsuite and We Are Social, January 2019 Qatar is the only country in the region to rank among the world's best nations for mobile internet connection speeds.

Image: Hootsuite/We Are Social Middle East data usage The average mobile subscriber in the region consumes 3.7GB of data per month, one of the lowest amounts in the world.

Source: Northwestern University in Qatar, February 2019 Among internet users, just 9% of Qatari nationals use Facebook.

Image: Northwestern University in Qatar Middle East's digital divides In the region, 44% of people have access to mobile broadband but do not subscribe to it.

Source: Cisco, February 2019 Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CAGR (2017–2022) Global 39.0 45.9 52.9 60.4 67.9 75.4 14% Asia Pacific 46.2 62.8 79.4 87.5 92.7 98.8 16% Latin America 11.7 15.7 19.7 22.0 25.0 28.1 19% North America 43.2 56.6 70.1 79.6 87.9 94.2 17% Western Europe 37.9 45.6 53.2 60.8 68.4 76.0 15% Central and Eastern Europe 32.8 35.0 37.2 40.8 43.7 46.7 7% Middle East and Africa 7.8 9.7 11.7 15.7 17.6 20.2 21% By 2022, the region's average fixed broadband speed will reach 20.2Mbps.

published economy (general) technology
Image of article 'Middle East technology: The good, the bad and the ugly told in these key stats'

Middle East technology: The good, the bad and the ugly told in these key stats

Source: Hootsuite and We Are Social, January 2019 Qatar is the only country in the region to rank among the world's best nations for mobile internet connection speeds.

Image: Hootsuite/We Are Social Middle East data usage The average mobile subscriber in the region consumes 3.7GB of data per month, one of the lowest amounts in the world.

Source: Northwestern University in Qatar, February 2019 Among internet users, just 9% of Qatari nationals use Facebook.

Image: Northwestern University in Qatar Middle East's digital divides In the region, 44% of people have access to mobile broadband but do not subscribe to it.

Source: Cisco, February 2019 Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CAGR (2017–2022) Global 39.0 45.9 52.9 60.4 67.9 75.4 14% Asia Pacific 46.2 62.8 79.4 87.5 92.7 98.8 16% Latin America 11.7 15.7 19.7 22.0 25.0 28.1 19% North America 43.2 56.6 70.1 79.6 87.9 94.2 17% Western Europe 37.9 45.6 53.2 60.8 68.4 76.0 15% Central and Eastern Europe 32.8 35.0 37.2 40.8 43.7 46.7 7% Middle East and Africa 7.8 9.7 11.7 15.7 17.6 20.2 21% By 2022, the region's average fixed broadband speed will reach 20.2Mbps.

published economy (general) technology